The latest figures from the HMRC show a marked fall in housing transactions.
The provisional non-seasonally adjusted estimate of the number of UK residential transactions in April 2023 is 67,220, 32% lower than April 2022 and 29% lower than March 2023
The provisional seasonally- adjusted estimate of the number of UK residential transactions in April 2023 is 82,120, 25% lower than April 2022 and 8% lower than March 2023.
The HMRC points out that the month-on-month fall in non-seasonally adjusted and seasonally adjusted transactions from March to April appears particularly large. This, it says, is partly due to the relative strength of March.
The number of transactions in March was high due to a combination of factors including a larger number of working days relative to April and the final month for purchases to be completed under the government’s Help To Buy Equity Loan Scheme.
London estate agent and a former RICS residential chairman Jeremy Leaf says these numbers are not particularly surprising as they not only relate to improvements in activity since the beginning of this year but also include the period immediately following last September’s mini-Budget when many pressed the pause button for several weeks.
“There is no doubt that the reduction in competition for property will show itself in transactions, which are a better indicator of market health than more volatile prices. Sales are taking longer and there is not the same urgency we saw previously.
“Looking forward, we expect ups and downs bearing in mind worsening expected inflation data released last week.’
MT Finance director of property lending Tomer Aboody says: ‘With rates still rising, this is adding further uncertainty as buyers are unsure as to whether to wait or make a move.
‘With transactions on a downwards trend, some stimulus is needed to encourage sellers to come to market, and downsizers in particular.
‘With a general election in 18 months’ time, it would be a good way for the government to boost the economy and get the property market thriving once more.’
Livemore managing director of capital markets and finance Simon Webb comments: “Property transactions continue to fall following a month-on-month rise in March primarily due to more working days compared to February and April.
“The slowdown is likely to continue as uncertainty in the economy along with the high cost of living and rising mortgage rates will put some people off moving home. Until inflation comes down to more palatable levels and Bank base rate reduces, we expect 2023 to deliver a subdued housing market.”
Jackson-Stops chairman Nick Leeming suggests the volume of property sales we’re now seeing are a continuation of the twists and turns of the past three years.
“Although transaction levels have become more subdued in recent months and borrowing has become more challenging at the lower end of the market, mortgage lending is still happening and those that need to move will continue to do so”.
He adds: “A rebalanced market that is more equal and doesn’t play to favourites, is one that will be more resilient in the long-term. While sellers remain in a strong position, able to command much more for their homes than would have been thought possible pre-2020, it is now the turn of buyers to operate on a much more even playing field.
