As we look back at the year that was, we can say 2023 was a year that tested the resilience of Canadian mortgage holders. And as we look forward, there’s optimism that 2024 will be the year of rate relief.
Building on the 400 basis points worth of rate hikes by the Bank of Canada in 2022, borrowers faced an additional three quarter-point hikes in 2023, raising payments for some variable-rate borrowers and those renewing their mortgage.
While mortgage delinquency rates have risen slightly from their record lows, borrowers have largely proven resilient thus far. By the Bank of Canada’s own estimation, roughly 40% of mortgage-holders have already seen their mortgage renew at a higher rate.
The bulk of renewal pain, however, is coming up in the next several years. Analysts estimate about $251 billion in mortgages will come up for renewal in 2024, with another $352 billion worth in 2025.
While the Bank of Canada expects that at least 8 in 10 mortgage holders will face a “relatively large” mortgage payment increase by the end of 2025, expected interest rate cuts in the years ahead should help ease that payment shock.
Falling interest rates in 2024 are also expected to support a rebound in home sales and prices. But forecasters differ on what those growth rates could look like.
For a look at what 2024 could hold in store for interest rates and the country’s housing market, we’ve compiled a selection of forecasts below…
Real Estate Market
The Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA)
2024 home sales forecast: 490,257 (+9% year-over-year)
“National home sales are forecast to rebound…as interest rates get closer to, and eventually start, trending down and housing markets make a turn back towards their long-term trends. This forecast would place activity close to the pre-pandemic 10-year average, below levels recorded in 2007, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2019, 2020, 2021, and 2022.”
2024 home price forecast: $690,916 (+1.5%)
Commentary: “Despite a lot of monthly volatility, this forecast would actually mark the fourth year in a row that the annual national average price has remained in the $680,000-$700,000 range…Prices in Alberta are expected to outperform the rest of Canada in 2024, with a forecast gain of 4.8% compared to 2023. In contrast, Ontario is forecast to see virtually no growth in prices next year (+0.2%).”
2024 aggregate house price forecast by Q4: $843,684 (+5% year-over-year)
Commentary: “We see 2024 as an important tipping point for the national economy as the majority of Canadians acknowledge that the ultra-low interest rate era is dead and gone,” said Phil Soper, President and CEO, Royal LePage. “We believe that the ‘great adjustment’ to tolerable, mid-single-digit borrowing costs will have a firm grip on our collective consciousness after only modest rate cuts by the Bank of Canada.”
2024 national average price increase: +0.5% year-over-year
Commentary: “The slower market we’ve been experiencing across the country [earlier] this fall could be an early indicator of an active 2024, as reflected in the modest price increase and sales outlook for next year, and the balancing of conditions in several regions across the country,” said Christopher Alexander, President of Re/Max Canada.
2024 home resales forecast: 496,000 (+9.4% year-over-year)
Commentary: “We expect home resale activity to stay especially quiet in Ontario and British Columbia until interest rates fall materially. And then, the recovery that will follow is likely to be gradual at first. Buyers in other markets may respond more quickly to easing rates. Those in the Prairies (including Calgary) still display strong confidence levels at this juncture.”
2024 home price forecast by Q4: $799,900 (+1.9%)
Commentary: “The good news is the latest bout of housing affordability deterioration has likely run its course and the third quarter will prove to be the cyclical-worst point for RBC’s affordability measure. We see the situation improving from now on as home prices drift lower or stabilize in the majority of markets, and household income continue to grow at a solid pace.”
“Nonetheless, there’s a very long way to go before affordability is meaningfully restored. Buyers in many of Canada’s large markets will contend with extremely difficult conditions for some time.”
Commentary: “A weaker-than-expected economy poses an important downside risk to the outlook for housing, as it would negatively impact demand and could also precipitate forced selling. Another key risk is that rates will remain higher than forecast, should inflation linger at levels that are higher than we expect. On the opposite end, Canada’s population continues to grow strongly, meaning that housing shortages are likely to persist. This could push prices higher than we anticipate.”
As noted above, 2024 could be the year of interest rate relief. Bond markets are pricing roughly 15% odds of a rate cut as early as January. While that’s unlikely, most economists do expect the first Bank of Canada rate cut to happen by mid-year.
Forecasts from most of the Big 6 banks see the overnight target rate falling back to at least 4.00% by the end of 2024 from its current rate of 5.00%.
Bond yields, which lead fixed mortgage rates, are also expected to have reached their peak. Since early October, the 5-year Government of Canada bond yield has now fallen more than a full percentage point, resulting in numerous fixed mortgage rate cuts by the big banks and other mortgage lenders across the country.
The following are the latest interest rate and bond yield forecasts from the Big 6 banks, with any changes from their previous forecasts in parenthesis.
This mode enables people with epilepsy to use the website safely by eliminating the risk of seizures that result from flashing or blinking animations and risky color combinations.
Visually Impaired Mode
Improves website's visuals
This mode adjusts the website for the convenience of users with visual impairments such as Degrading Eyesight, Tunnel Vision, Cataract, Glaucoma, and others.
Cognitive Disability Mode
Helps to focus on specific content
This mode provides different assistive options to help users with cognitive impairments such as Dyslexia, Autism, CVA, and others, to focus on the essential elements of the website more easily.
ADHD Friendly Mode
Reduces distractions and improve focus
This mode helps users with ADHD and Neurodevelopmental disorders to read, browse, and focus on the main website elements more easily while significantly reducing distractions.
Blindness Mode
Allows using the site with your screen-reader
This mode configures the website to be compatible with screen-readers such as JAWS, NVDA, VoiceOver, and TalkBack. A screen-reader is software for blind users that is installed on a computer and smartphone, and websites must be compatible with it.
Online Dictionary
Readable Experience
Content Scaling
Default
Text Magnifier
Readable Font
Dyslexia Friendly
Highlight Titles
Highlight Links
Font Sizing
Default
Line Height
Default
Letter Spacing
Default
Left Aligned
Center Aligned
Right Aligned
Visually Pleasing Experience
Dark Contrast
Light Contrast
Monochrome
High Contrast
High Saturation
Low Saturation
Adjust Text Colors
Adjust Title Colors
Adjust Background Colors
Easy Orientation
Mute Sounds
Hide Images
Virtual Keyboard
Reading Guide
Stop Animations
Reading Mask
Highlight Hover
Highlight Focus
Big Dark Cursor
Big Light Cursor
Cognitive Reading
Navigation Keys
Voice Navigation
Accessibility Statement
www.trustedmortgagecapital.com
December 24, 2024
Compliance status
We firmly believe that the internet should be available and accessible to anyone, and are committed to providing a website that is accessible to the widest possible audience,
regardless of circumstance and ability.
To fulfill this, we aim to adhere as strictly as possible to the World Wide Web Consortium’s (W3C) Web Content Accessibility Guidelines 2.1 (WCAG 2.1) at the AA level.
These guidelines explain how to make web content accessible to people with a wide array of disabilities. Complying with those guidelines helps us ensure that the website is accessible
to all people: blind people, people with motor impairments, visual impairment, cognitive disabilities, and more.
This website utilizes various technologies that are meant to make it as accessible as possible at all times. We utilize an accessibility interface that allows persons with specific
disabilities to adjust the website’s UI (user interface) and design it to their personal needs.
Additionally, the website utilizes an AI-based application that runs in the background and optimizes its accessibility level constantly. This application remediates the website’s HTML,
adapts Its functionality and behavior for screen-readers used by the blind users, and for keyboard functions used by individuals with motor impairments.
If you’ve found a malfunction or have ideas for improvement, we’ll be happy to hear from you. You can reach out to the website’s operators by using the following email
Screen-reader and keyboard navigation
Our website implements the ARIA attributes (Accessible Rich Internet Applications) technique, alongside various different behavioral changes, to ensure blind users visiting with
screen-readers are able to read, comprehend, and enjoy the website’s functions. As soon as a user with a screen-reader enters your site, they immediately receive
a prompt to enter the Screen-Reader Profile so they can browse and operate your site effectively. Here’s how our website covers some of the most important screen-reader requirements,
alongside console screenshots of code examples:
Screen-reader optimization: we run a background process that learns the website’s components from top to bottom, to ensure ongoing compliance even when updating the website.
In this process, we provide screen-readers with meaningful data using the ARIA set of attributes. For example, we provide accurate form labels;
descriptions for actionable icons (social media icons, search icons, cart icons, etc.); validation guidance for form inputs; element roles such as buttons, menus, modal dialogues (popups),
and others. Additionally, the background process scans all the website’s images and provides an accurate and meaningful image-object-recognition-based description as an ALT (alternate text) tag
for images that are not described. It will also extract texts that are embedded within the image, using an OCR (optical character recognition) technology.
To turn on screen-reader adjustments at any time, users need only to press the Alt+1 keyboard combination. Screen-reader users also get automatic announcements to turn the Screen-reader mode on
as soon as they enter the website.
These adjustments are compatible with all popular screen readers, including JAWS and NVDA.
Keyboard navigation optimization: The background process also adjusts the website’s HTML, and adds various behaviors using JavaScript code to make the website operable by the keyboard. This includes the ability to navigate the website using the Tab and Shift+Tab keys, operate dropdowns with the arrow keys, close them with Esc, trigger buttons and links using the Enter key, navigate between radio and checkbox elements using the arrow keys, and fill them in with the Spacebar or Enter key.Additionally, keyboard users will find quick-navigation and content-skip menus, available at any time by clicking Alt+1, or as the first elements of the site while navigating with the keyboard. The background process also handles triggered popups by moving the keyboard focus towards them as soon as they appear, and not allow the focus drift outside it.
Users can also use shortcuts such as “M” (menus), “H” (headings), “F” (forms), “B” (buttons), and “G” (graphics) to jump to specific elements.
Disability profiles supported in our website
Epilepsy Safe Mode: this profile enables people with epilepsy to use the website safely by eliminating the risk of seizures that result from flashing or blinking animations and risky color combinations.
Visually Impaired Mode: this mode adjusts the website for the convenience of users with visual impairments such as Degrading Eyesight, Tunnel Vision, Cataract, Glaucoma, and others.
Cognitive Disability Mode: this mode provides different assistive options to help users with cognitive impairments such as Dyslexia, Autism, CVA, and others, to focus on the essential elements of the website more easily.
ADHD Friendly Mode: this mode helps users with ADHD and Neurodevelopmental disorders to read, browse, and focus on the main website elements more easily while significantly reducing distractions.
Blindness Mode: this mode configures the website to be compatible with screen-readers such as JAWS, NVDA, VoiceOver, and TalkBack. A screen-reader is software for blind users that is installed on a computer and smartphone, and websites must be compatible with it.
Keyboard Navigation Profile (Motor-Impaired): this profile enables motor-impaired persons to operate the website using the keyboard Tab, Shift+Tab, and the Enter keys. Users can also use shortcuts such as “M” (menus), “H” (headings), “F” (forms), “B” (buttons), and “G” (graphics) to jump to specific elements.
Additional UI, design, and readability adjustments
Font adjustments – users, can increase and decrease its size, change its family (type), adjust the spacing, alignment, line height, and more.
Color adjustments – users can select various color contrast profiles such as light, dark, inverted, and monochrome. Additionally, users can swap color schemes of titles, texts, and backgrounds, with over seven different coloring options.
Animations – person with epilepsy can stop all running animations with the click of a button. Animations controlled by the interface include videos, GIFs, and CSS flashing transitions.
Content highlighting – users can choose to emphasize important elements such as links and titles. They can also choose to highlight focused or hovered elements only.
Audio muting – users with hearing devices may experience headaches or other issues due to automatic audio playing. This option lets users mute the entire website instantly.
Cognitive disorders – we utilize a search engine that is linked to Wikipedia and Wiktionary, allowing people with cognitive disorders to decipher meanings of phrases, initials, slang, and others.
Additional functions – we provide users the option to change cursor color and size, use a printing mode, enable a virtual keyboard, and many other functions.
Browser and assistive technology compatibility
We aim to support the widest array of browsers and assistive technologies as possible, so our users can choose the best fitting tools for them, with as few limitations as possible. Therefore, we have worked very hard to be able to support all major systems that comprise over 95% of the user market share including Google Chrome, Mozilla Firefox, Apple Safari, Opera and Microsoft Edge, JAWS and NVDA (screen readers).
Notes, comments, and feedback
Despite our very best efforts to allow anybody to adjust the website to their needs. There may still be pages or sections that are not fully accessible, are in the process of becoming accessible, or are lacking an adequate technological solution to make them accessible. Still, we are continually improving our accessibility, adding, updating and improving its options and features, and developing and adopting new technologies. All this is meant to reach the optimal level of accessibility, following technological advancements. For any assistance, please reach out to